If Donald Trump’s aggressive moves on the international economy spark a trade war, the American communities that will lose the most in absolute terms are the giant metropolitan areas, largely along the two coasts, that are most deeply integrated into global markets. But in proportional terms, the biggest losers from […] Read more »
The 2016 Presidential Vote: A Look Down in the Weeds
If Hillary Clinton had won the presidency — and she took the popular vote by nearly 3 million — the narrative of the 2016 election would be far different. Rather than the storyline being Donald’s Trump triumph in the heartland, with its beleaguered blue-collar workers, the emphasis now would be […] Read more »
Trump’s Road to the White House
An investigation of how Donald Trump defied expectations to win the presidency — and what it suggests about how he will govern. Frontline Read more »
The Electoral College Blind Spot
Donald Trump’s victory in last November’s election victory came despite the fact that he lost the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points, making for the widest discrepancy between the popular vote and the Electoral College since 1876. So one measure of the quality of horse-race analysis is in how seriously […] Read more »
Will rural voters who swung to Trump swing back?
Donald Trump was propelled to victory in Wisconsin by the most volatile part of its electorate — rural voters with a long history of big election swings, almost always against the party in the White House. That pattern could pose a special challenge to Republicans defending their power in 2018 […] Read more »
How Unconscious Sexism Could Help Explain Trump’s Win
A woman has never come closer to the presidency than Hillary Clinton did in winning the popular vote in November. Yet as women march in Washington on Saturday, many of them to protest the presidency of Donald Trump, an important obstacle to the first woman president remains: the hidden, internalized […] Read more »