In the year since President Trump pulled off his stunning upset of Hillary Clinton, Democrats have blamed the result on all kinds of factors: James Comey’s letter, Russian hackers, voter suppression, Jill Stein’s candidacy and depressed African-American turnout, to name a few. The truth? In an election decided by fractions […] Read more »
The Democratic Civil War Is Getting Nasty, Even if No One Is Paying Attention
… It can be difficult, if not impossible, in Washington these days to pay attention to the Democrats’ war within while what appears to be the full-fledged implosion of the Republican Party unfolds. … So perhaps it’s no surprise that the brewing fight over the Democratic Party’s future gets so […] Read more »
2016 is the election that will never end
A full year has passed since Donald Trump was elected president, yet the campaign of 2016 will not end. The president remains obsessed with it, Democrats are still wrangling over a bitter primary contest and a shocking loss in the general election, and analysts are still trying to understand better […] Read more »
Voter Trends in 2016
The unprecedented and largely unanticipated election of Republican candidate Donald Trump as president of the United States in 2016 set off intense debates about how his victory was achieved and which factors mattered most in determining the outcome. … For this project, we developed original turnout and support estimates by […] Read more »
In Today’s America, Small Voting Shifts Can Have Really Big Effects
… One of the most distinctive attributes of our current political era is that the two parties are closely balanced at the national level, yet each side maintains a formidable record of electoral dominance across large regional subsections of the United States. Since the 1990s, we have experienced a series […] Read more »
Was the 2016 election actually a political realignment?
Did 2016 represent a realignment? That’s certainly an overused and somewhat taboo word these days. But to listen to media coverage today, you might get the impression that 2016 was a substantial break from voting patterns of the past. I’d like to explore this question a bit here and bring […] Read more »