Crucial disputes over Democratic strategy concerning economic distribution, race and immigration have in large part been based on Election Day exit polls that now appear to have been inaccurate in key ways. According to subsequent studies, those polls substantially underestimated the number of Democratic white working-class voters — many of […] Read more »
How election forecasts confuse Americans — and may lead them not to vote at all
Where were you on the night of Nov. 8, 2016? If you’re like many political junkies, you were watching election night coverage and wondering not whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump would win but might Clinton do so well that she’d win in places like Texas and Arizona. When she […] Read more »
Kathleen Hall Jamieson: How Russian Hackers and Trolls Exploited US Media in 2016
Kathleen Hall Jamieson chronicles how Russian trolls and hackers exploited U.S. media routines and social media structures in order to sow discord, undermine Hillary Clinton’s candidacy and bolster Donald Trump’s electoral prospects. (From March 5, 2018.) USC Annenberg Read more »
The Missing Obama Millions
Much of the political commentary since the presidential election has focused on two groups of party switchers: those who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2016 and those who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump voters who previously voted for […] Read more »
What Motivates Voters More Than Loyalty? Loathing
Hostility to the opposition party and its candidates has now reached a level where loathing motivates voters more than loyalty. The building strength of partisan antipathy — “negative partisanship” — has radically altered politics. Anger has become the primary tool for motivating voters. Ticket splitting is dying out. But perhaps […] Read more »
Trump Losing College-Educated Whites? He Never Won Them in the First Place
After Donald J. Trump’s upset victory in the 2016 presidential election, one data point from the network exit polls jumped out at analysts: his two-point win among college-educated white voters. Many pre-election polls had suggested they would favor Hillary Clinton. And now, more than a year later, polls again show […] Read more »