The Polling Paradox: How to Read the Numbers

Do you believe, as the ABC News/Washington Post poll showed this week, that Hillary Clinton is beating Jeb Bush nationally by a margin of 10 percentage points (51 percent to 41 percent)? Do you believe, as the Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday on a set of battleground states showed, that […] Read more »

Don’t Assess 2016 with Assumptions

A lot of conventional wisdom floating out there about 2016 is grounded more in opinion and assumption than in facts or data. And, as your teacher or mom may have taught you, “assumption makes an A.S.S. out of you and me.” Here are some of the most prevalent and pervasive […] Read more »

Trump surges to big lead in GOP presidential race

Businessman Donald Trump surged into the lead for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, with almost twice the support of his closest rival, just as he ignited a new controversy after making disparaging remarks about Sen. John McCain’s Vietnam War service, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. CONT. Dan […] Read more »

AP-GfK Poll: Minorities, young Americans still backing Obama

Barack Obama is holding on to relatively high levels of support among the so-called “Obama coalition” of minorities, liberals and young Americans, suggesting the president could play a potent role helping the next Democratic presidential nominee’s bid for election, an Associated Press-GfK poll found. Yet even with that support from […] Read more »