How pollsters got Iowa wrong

Donald Trump led almost all of the polls leading up to Monday night’s Iowa caucuses – just ask him. … So why did the public polls – including the gold-standard Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll – miss Cruz’s victory? There are some clues buried in the election results and […] Read more »

How the ‘Virtual Tie’ in Iowa Helps Hillary Clinton

Bernie Sanders is right: The Iowa Democratic caucuses were a “virtual tie,” especially after you consider that the results aren’t even actual vote tallies, but state delegate equivalents subject to all kinds of messy rounding rules and potential geographic biases. … But in the end, a virtual tie in Iowa […] Read more »

Polls Show Preferences and Priorities in Iowa

Senator Ted Cruz won support among white evangelical voters, conservatives and those who were seeking a candidate who shares their values. Donald J. Trump did well among first-time caucusgoers and those who want the next president to be from outside the political establishment and bring change. Senator Marco Rubio found […] Read more »

Why Iowa Matters For Trump And Sanders

If there’s one thing almost every species of political journalist agrees upon — number-crunchy nerds and shoe-leather reporters have no real beef about this — it’s that Iowa matters. Iowa matters a lot. … It isn’t self-evident why the votes of a couple of hundred thousand people in a kooky […] Read more »