Trump’s poll numbers went up after high levels of Russian troll activity, though Clinton’s didn’t go down. AP/Mary Altaffer, Chuck Burton Damian Ruck, University of Bristol When Robert Mueller completed his long-awaited investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, he left many questions unanswered. But one conclusion was […] Read more »
There Are Really Two Distinct White Working Classes
… Marginal shifts in partisan balloting by the white working class have been a crucial determinant in the outcome of elections since 1968. This non-college white constituency — pollster shorthand for both the white working class and the white middle class without college degrees — makes up a massive bloc […] Read more »
How Front-Runners Can Fail
Former Vice President Joe Biden is the early front-runner in the 2020 Democratic presidential race — for the moment, at least. He leads in national polls and most surveys of the early primaries and caucuses, but if Biden were to falter, he wouldn’t be the first early primary front-runner to […] Read more »
Women and Electability – Part 1
Punditry has focused lately on Democratic voters’ desire for an electable presidential candidate with the suggestion that the electability criterion biases them against women candidates. … The reality is that there has not been a test of whether women, writ large, are less electable. In the one circumstance in which […] Read more »
Gender Differences in Emotional Reactions to the First 2016 Presidential Debate
The first presidential general election debate of 2016 was historic in many ways, featuring two unique candidates and the largest audience in history with just over 84 million viewers. We explore the emotional impact of this widely-viewed debate on viewers in our new article, entitled “Gender Differences in Emotional Reactions […] Read more »
Rumblings from Trump’s base could shape Democrats’ choice for 2020
President Donald Trump’s political base may not be as impregnable as commonly assumed. And that could have big implications not only for the Democrats’ strategy against Trump in 2020 but also for their choice of a presidential nominee. Detailed new research by the Democratic voter-targeting firm Catalist found that the […] Read more »