Advantages on qualifications and consistency and help from an increasingly popular incumbent are aiding Hillary Clinton in the presidential race — but with weaknesses sufficient to keep Donald Trump well in the hunt in the campaign’s closing months. CONT. Gary Langer, ABC News Read more »
Trump’s Main November Foe Isn’t Clinton, It’s Demographic Change
To win the White House, Donald Trump may need to turn back the clock and make the American electorate look more like it did in 2004 than in 2012. … So, why are so many polls close right now? One reason: Some pollsters foresee working-class whites making up a larger […] Read more »
Why you should be skeptical of wacky new studies about what sways elections
This has been a rough year for pollsters and pundits, with prediction after prediction going painfully awry. Even those supposedly unflappable data journalists have found themselves stepping in it. But it’s not just the journalists and pollsters. Since I’m a professor of statistics as well as a blogger who often […] Read more »
How Obama will lift Clinton to victory, barely
At the American Political Science Association (APSA) meetings last week in Philadelphia, Charles Tien and I released our presidential election forecast, as did other political science forecasters. We called a narrow win for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, with 51 percent of the popular vote share (the Democratic and Republican total). […] Read more »
Trump Beats Clinton Among Least-Educated Whites in Bloomberg Poll
Donald Trump is decisively winning white voters who don’t have more than a high-school education, but his stubborn unpopularity with minorities has given Hillary Clinton a narrow overall lead with America’s least-educated voters. Those findings from the latest Purple Slice online poll for Bloomberg Politics highlight two of the biggest […] Read more »
Summer Swoon or Sign of Deeper Problems for Clinton?
Donald Trump had a terrible June and July. Hillary Clinton had a terrible mid to late August. Both were victims of self-inflicted wounds – one attacked a Gold Star family the other set up a private email server and deleted loads of emails that are now coming to light. The […] Read more »