… Trump needs to show skeptical voters that he’s competent – that he can actually handle the job of president of the United States. Clinton must avoid unwinnable arguments about her honesty, and focus instead on how she would make voters’ lives better. The Republican’s goals appear considerably easier. CONT. […] Read more »
Where The Race Stands Heading Into The First Debate
Whatever arguments we’ve had about the polls this week will soon be swamped by the reaction to Monday’s presidential debate. As a rough guide, I’d expect us to have some initial sense of how the debate has moved the numbers by Thursday or Friday based on quick-turnaround polls, and a […] Read more »
Poll Aggregation Fight
Last week I got into a little Twitter fight with Nat[e] Silver. I tweeted that I am concerned about the FiveThirtyEight forecast, both how much volatility it has and how predictable the forecast is. … Here is summary of methodological disagreements with Nate Silver (who I find to be a […] Read more »
Clinton, Trump in tossup Colorado race; Clinton holds lead in Virginia
In Virginia, Hillary Clinton has an eight-point lead, though that’s down from the sizable twelve points it was last month amid her post-convention bounce. Colorado is a tossup — Clinton holds a mere one-point lead over Trump. In Colorado, in particular, both candidates get negative ratings from voters across a […] Read more »
Do Presidential Debates Impact Election Outcomes?
The presidential debates are generally considered the last big opportunity to move voters before the election. They offer rare moments for Americans to do some head-to-head comparison shopping between two candidates on the same stage discussing the issues. And yet, according to the numbers, the debates have done little to […] Read more »
Maine voters appear poised to render historic Electoral College vote split
For the first time in Maine history, voters are poised to split the state’s four Electoral College votes between the top two candidates running for the White House. Republican Donald Trump has a commanding 15-point lead in the state’s northern and more rural 2nd District, while his Democratic rival Hillary […] Read more »