… Increased anger isn’t a new phenomenon, but it is a rising one. Political scientist Steven Webster argues in his book, “American Rage,” that this current moment of partisan rancor is the culmination of a long pattern of increased anger in American politics. Webster finds that politicians in both parties […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders supporters reluctantly turn to Joe Biden, fueled by their dislike of President Trump
… While Trump is once again expected to attract some Americans who voted for Sanders in the primary and then helped him win crucial battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2016, polls, analysts and interviews with nearly a dozen Sanders voters suggest he won’t be as successful […] Read more »
Trump, Biden and the Myth of ‘But 2016’
… Just as William Faulkner wrote about how Southerners once daydreamed about the moments before Pickett’s Charge, before Gettysburg turned the tide of the Civil War, some activists seem frozen in the post-midnight hours of Nov. 9, 2016, when Mr. Trump won and time — political time — stopped like […] Read more »
How Trump has broken the polls
… The polls clearly show that Biden is ahead and by a larger margin than Hillary Clinton was on the eve of the 2016 election. You might think that would make people believe that Biden is more likely to win, even if it were far from a certainty. Yet, the […] Read more »
Preview of Coming Distractions
… It is fair to conclude that with numbers as bad as the ones real live voters gave the 2016 Republican nominee, the only reason Trump won an electoral college victory and the White House was because he was running against Clinton. The cold, hard truth is that if Trump […] Read more »
Tweets of Note
While 2020 may very well defy historical patterns, in elections over the past five decades an incumbent president's approval rating at ~200 days out has been a remarkably strong predictor of his ultimate vote share. Trump's current rating puts him in Carter & GHW Bush territory. pic.twitter.com/pyvZA1q6St — Patrick Egan […] Read more »