This may be a particularly bad time to write an update on the House. But we’re going to do so anyway, if only to explain why that is. Mainly, it’s because we’re in a very hazy period in the battle for control of the lower chamber — a battle that, […] Read more »
Is There Any Precedent For A Trump Comeback?
Donald Trump now trails Hillary Clinton by 6.6 percentage points, according to our polls-only model. And the clock is ticking. We’re 26 days from the election, and by this point in past campaigns, the concrete had basically dried. Trump could stage a comeback. It’s possible. But it would be basically […] Read more »
How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages
There is a 19-year-old black man in Illinois who has no idea of the role he is playing in this election. He is sure he is going to vote for Donald J. Trump. … He’s a panelist on the U.S.C. Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak poll, which has emerged as the […] Read more »
Poll charts damage of tape to Trump in Wisconsin
Awash in controversy and dogged by divisions in his own party, Donald Trump has slipped further behind Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin and now trails her by 7 points in the latest survey of likely voters by the Marquette Law School. … The poll’s timing made it a natural test of […] Read more »
Split Over Donald Trump Threatens to Tilt Republican States
Donald J. Trump’s intensifying battle with his own party is tearing open the nation’s political map, pulling Republicans across the country into a self-destructive feud that could imperil dozens of lawmakers in Congress and potentially throw conservative-leaning states into Hillary Clinton’s column. CONT. Alexander Burns & Jonathan Martin, New York […] Read more »
Women Are Defeating Donald Trump
… But while we’re in something of a wait-and-see mode, one demographic split caught my eye. That was from a Public Religion Research Institute poll conducted on behalf of The Atlantic. It showed a massive gender split, with Clinton trailing Trump by 11 percentage points among men but leading him by […] Read more »