Key Points • In advance of Saturday’s runoff gubernatorial election in Louisiana, the data point to Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) as a small favorite. • We’re moving our rating there from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, but even if Edwards holds on, it may not be by much. • In […] Read more »
Republicans need to study the lessons of 2018 and 2019 before racing to 2020
Whenever there is a special election or an off-year one, you can count on both parties to react in a familiar fashion. They focus on the bright spots and dismiss losses by telling us, “Don’t read too much into it.” Last Tuesday’s elections were a mixed bag for Republicans with […] Read more »
Running For President May Make You More Unpopular In Your Home State
Over the course of this election cycle so far, 25 major presidential candidates — by FiveThirtyEight’s definition — have entered the race for the Democratic nomination. That gobsmacking number sparked criticism that there were perverse incentives to run for president even if a candidate plainly had no shot at winning […] Read more »
Are this week’s gubernatorial races a reason for Trump to panic?
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver looks at what the outcome of governor’s races in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana could mean for 2020. This Week, ABC News Read more »
Close Election in Kentucky Was Ripe for Twitter, and an Omen for 2020
A few hours after polls closed in Kentucky last Tuesday, a Twitter user writing under the handle @Overlordkraken1 posted a message to his 19 followers saying he had “just shredded a box of Republican mail-in ballots.” … Within hours of @Overlordkraken1’s tweet, as it became apparent that Mr. Bevin was […] Read more »
Kentucky: Exit Poll Provides A Closer Look at Bevin’s Loss
A group of political scientists and researchers, including Benjamin Knoll at Centre College, conducted an exit poll of the Kentucky governor’s race. They interviewed nearly 4,000 residents in the state. What they found was that Matt Bevin won overwhelmingly among evangelical and born-again Christians (62-36). He also won male voters […] Read more »