Longtime readers will know that I was a big fan of Drew Linzer’s 2012 presidential forecast model contained at his Votamatic website, and not just because he was kind enough fly out here to give a talk to Middlebury students during the middle of the presidential campaign. Linzer’s model, you […] Read more »
A Tale Of Two Primaries In Massachusetts
Two groups of Massachusetts voters will head to the polls Tuesday to choose the Democratic and Republican nominees for governor. But the voters who turn out for these pivotal contests look very different than the electorate likely to turn out for the Nov. 4 general election. CONT. Steve Koczela & […] Read more »
8 questions — and answers — about the midterm elections
The House is in GOP hands, and no one thinks the November midterm elections will change that. Republicans could lose governorships in presidential battleground states, and that is hardly insignificant. But House and gubernatorial contests pale in comparison to the question of who will control the Senate next January. … […] Read more »
Daily Kos Elections Poll Explorer says Democrats have 47% chance of holding the Senate (right now)
Daily Kos Elections is pleased to announce the introduction of its Poll Explorer! The Poll Explorer is a statistical model that allows us to track public opinion in each Senate and gubernatorial race this year, and from there, predict the likely outcome of each race and the number of seats […] Read more »
In Swing States, Obamacare Becomes an Asset
… The Republicans Tom Corbett, of Pennsylvania, and Paul LePage, of Maine, are both unlikely to win their races, and Nathan Deal, of Georgia, is locked in a tight contest with the Democrat Jason Carter. Corbett, LePage, Deal, and Walker have all governed according to their party’s most strongly held […] Read more »
Unlike previous midterm election years, no dominant theme has emerged for 2014
… This is an election about nothing — and everything. Unlike in previous midterm election years, no dominant national theme has emerged for the 2014 campaign, according to public opinion surveys as well as interviews last week with scores of voters in five key states and with dozens of politicians […] Read more »