“Demographics as destiny” was one of the major themes that came out of the 2012 election. It was argued that Democrats, with their strong support from the growing minority population, were en route to becoming a long-lasting majority party. And Republicans, tied to a slowly declining white population, were on […] Read more »
Yup, It Was a Wave
It might not have been 1994 or 2010, but 2014 was a wave all its own: A late-breaking surge that lifted Republicans to some surprisingly strong performances across the country. Notably, though, the argument for this election being a “wave” has more to do with the House and gubernatorial races, […] Read more »
The Democrats’ Southern Problem Reaches a New Depth
… The inability of Southern Democrats to run well ahead of a deeply unpopular Mr. Obama raises questions about how an increasingly urban and culturally liberal national Democratic Party can compete in the staunchly conservative South. It raises serious doubts about whether a future Democratic presidential candidate, like Hillary Clinton, […] Read more »
Did Republicans Conquer Obamaland?
… The lesson of the last decade in politics is not to over-interpret the results of any single election. The dominant trends in American politics were mostly reinforced yesterday: the country is increasingly polarized; the low-turnout midterm electorate benefits Republicans; the Senate will remain closely contested for the foreseeable future; […] Read more »
Why The Elephants Are Dancing: Understanding the November 2014 Election
Public Opinion Strategies’ Election Night Poll shows the 2014 election was defined by major dissatisfaction about the direction of the country, the economy, and President Obama: On Election Day, roughly two-thirds (65%) of voters said the country is headed off on the wrong track. The weekend before the election 64% […] Read more »
The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats
For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats […] Read more »