Although it has received less attention, Trump’s waning support among women with less than a college degree may prove just as important as his eroding support among older voters. As far back as the 2018 midterm elections, commentators began suggesting that support for Trump was dwindling among white non-college women. […] Read more »
The Pandemic Hasn’t Changed Voters’ Minds About Trump
For all the focus on the gender gap, the diploma divide over Donald Trump is looming as an even greater factor in the 2020 presidential race—just as it was in 2016. … It’s remarkable how the outbreak has disrupted every aspect of American life without hugely reconfiguring the landscape for […] Read more »
Biden plans to pick a female running mate. Would it make a difference if she’s black?
With a pandemic raging, there’s not much in the way of traditional campaigning for Joe Biden to do right now. But he is managing to conduct the most public series of running mate auditions of any apparent Democratic nominee in decades. On Thursday, Biden appeared on national television for a […] Read more »
The Gendered Politics of Congressional Elections
When Senator Elizabeth Warren was asked whether she believed that the men in the 2020 presidential race have a better chance of beating Trump solely because of their gender, she answered, “I believe they may think so, but they’d be wrong. […] What the data show now is that in […] Read more »
Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide When We Reopen
All but a dozen states are in some phase of reopening from COVID-19 related shutdowns, and forecasts of the pandemic’s toll in the U.S. have correspondingly increased death projections due to the virus. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether there is an overarching plan […] Read more »
Having a woman of color as his running mate could help Joe Biden
The 2020 presidential campaign may well be one of the most combative since World War II. Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, will likely face stinging attacks for his positions on controversial racial issues such as opposing busing and supporting the 1994 crime bill. Our research suggests that to combat […] Read more »