… In this piece, I hope to outline the couple of significant choices I’ve made in my House model that stand in contrast to other sites and election handicappers, and show a behind-the-curtain peek at some opportunities to improve the way we judge a race. CONT. Noah Rudnick, Sabato’s Crystal […] Read more »
NBC News poll: The South, once a conservative bastion, is changing
The South is often viewed as a conservative monolith, but the region’s political views are more nuanced — and moderate — than many might expect, according to new NBC News | SurveyMonkey polls. CONT. Alex Seitz-Wald, NBC News Read more »
Inside the Alabama election, a lesson for the GOP in 2018
By most any political estimation, last week’s Alabama special Senate election was an outlier. Democrats generally don’t win statewide races in Alabama and Doug Jones likely wouldn’t have if a series of child molestation stories hadn’t surfaced about Republican candidate Roy Moore. But tallies out of Alabama’s biggest vote-producing counties […] Read more »
Beyond opposing Trump, Democrats keep searching for a message
The loss in last week’s special congressional election in Georgia produced predictable hand-wringing and finger-pointing inside the Democratic Party. It also raised anew a question that has troubled the party through a period in which they have lost ground political. Simply put: Do Democrats have a message? Right now, the […] Read more »
Four more lessons from this year’s special elections
As Republicans said on Wednesday, check the scoreboard. Four congressional elections have been held in seats vacated by Republicans who joined the Trump administration. All four have been won by Republicans, albeit by single-digit margins. Democrats, who hoped to put up a win to prove that the public was rejecting […] Read more »
The Pelosi Blame Game
As I predicted back in March, Democratic House Leader Nancy Pelosi played an outsized role in the special elections held in GOP-leaning seats this spring. Republicans pounded the Atlanta airwaves in the GA-06 special election with thousands of ads attacking Democrat Jon Ossoff, who positioned himself as a moderate and […] Read more »