The two words that could tip the debate on Iran — and help decide the next election

The fierce political debate over President Donald Trump’s decision to order the killing of a top Iranian military leader ultimately may turn on just two words. Republicans cheering Trump’s decision to target Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani have invariably described it as decisive. Democrats criticizing his choice have denounced it […] Read more »

How The Iran Conflict Could Affect The 2020 Election

Late Thursday, the Pentagon announced that the United States killed Iran’s Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, “at the direction of the President” in an airstrike in Iraq. Iran has since vowed retaliation. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how the current conflict or any further escalation […] Read more »

This recent poll shows how Americans think about the war in Afghanistan

The Washington Post’s recently published Afghanistan Papers project revealed a purposeful effort, by both Democratic and Republican administrations, to mislead the American public on the harsh realities of the war in Afghanistan. This fall, we asked a nationally representative sample of Americans, as part of the University of Maryland Critical […] Read more »

Trump thought war with Iran could help reelect Obama. What about Trump?

The president who once mused about a president attacking Iran to win reelection has now inched closer to war with Iran — in his own reelection year. But if President Trump truly thinks a new war in the Middle East might help him win, he might want to think again. […] Read more »

Attacking Iran will not help Trump win reelection. Here’s why.

In the 1997 movie “Wag the Dog,” a political adviser manufactures a war to help a scandal-besieged president win reelection. This parallel came to many minds after President Trump ordered airstrikes that killed Iran’s Quds Force commander, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani. … The “rally around the flag” effect happens when […] Read more »