Numerous Republican state legislatures are trying to pass new voter restriction legislation (e.g. limiting absentee and early voting). Meanwhile, Democrats in Congress are trying to pass laws that expand access to the ballot box. The moves from both camps come after an election with record turnout in which there were […] Read more »
An Interview with Murray Edelman on the History of the Exit Poll
In this column, survey methodologist Murray Edelman, one of the creators of the “Exit Poll,” speaks with Harvard Data Science Review’s Xiao-Li Meng and Liberty Vittert. The invention of political polling provided one of the most visible and high-stakes roles for the use of sampling in the history of statistics. […] Read more »
How Stable Is the Democratic Coalition?
… The 2020 presidential election results illustrate a clear edge for Democrats among nonwhite voters. Exit poll data show that just 32 percent of Hispanics and Latinos, 34 percent of Asian-Americans and 12 percent of Black respondents voted for former President Donald Trump. Data from AP VoteCast Survey put those […] Read more »
Trump pollster’s campaign autopsy paints damning picture of defeat
Former President Donald Trump has blamed the election results on unfounded claims of fraud and malfeasance. But at the top levels of his campaign, a detailed autopsy report that circulated among his political aides paints a far different — and more critical — portrait of what led to his defeat. […] Read more »
What the Data Say About How Biden Should Govern
Last month, I examined the exit-poll data to answer the question How did Joe Biden win the presidential election? I distilled six “hard truths” that help explain his victory. Drawing on those findings, I want to turn to a related question: What lessons does his victory hold for how he […] Read more »
AP VoteCast: Competing coalitions define GA Senate races
… The findings from AP VoteCast reveal the extent of Georgia’s recent political transformation — from GOP bastion to electoral battleground where turnout is decisive. The state’s runoffs will decide control of the U.S. Senate. The survey found Black voters made up roughly 30% of the electorate and almost all […] Read more »