By all accounts, President Trump did not win the Asian-American vote in 2016. But the size of Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory with voters in the fastest-growing racial group in the U.S. depends upon which exit poll you rely. The National Exit Poll, funded by the major national media organizations, […] Read more »
A 2016 Review: Turnout Wasn’t the Driver of Clinton’s Defeat
In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout. Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected. To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was […] Read more »
Another Look Back at 2016: Comparing the exit poll and the Cooperative Congressional Election Study
On election night in November, exit polls provided the first insight into how different demographic groups voted. But months later, other richer data sets are being released, and they provide researchers with new information about the election and the voters that participated in it. One such tool is the Cooperative […] Read more »
Trump Supporters Have the Most to Lose in the G.O.P. Repeal Bill
The people who stand to lose the most in tax credits under the House Republican health plan tended to support Donald J. Trump over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, according to a new Upshot analysis. … The plan would hit older and rural Americans hardest because it wouldn’t provide […] Read more »
Can Millennials Save the Democratic Party?
Facing a bleak electoral landscape after 2016, the brightest spot for Democrats may be President Trump’s continued weakness with members of the Millennial generation—who are poised to surpass the more Republican-leaning baby boomers in 2020 as the largest generation of eligible voters. Polls early in his presidency consistently show Trump […] Read more »
How Midterms Do (and Do Not) Differ From Presidential Elections
With politicos everywhere turning their eyes to the still-distant 2018 midterm election, we thought it would be useful to review some of the basic differences and similarities between the electorates in presidential and midterm cycles. Basically, midterm electorates are smaller, older, and less diverse than presidential ones, but the demographic […] Read more »