Today I noticed an op-ed by two political scientists, Howard Lavine and Wendy Rahm, entitled, “What if Trump’s Nativism Actually Hurts Him?” … Now I was curious, so I thought I’d check the numbers. CONT. Andrew Gelman (Columbia U.), Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science Read more »
What if Trump’s Nativism Actually Hurts Him?
President Trump’s short-lived family separation policy extended the hard line on immigration he promoted during his presidential campaign. Many analysts believe that this strategy helped him win the election by politicizing latent nativist sentiment among white Americans. … Contrary to received wisdom, however, the immigration issue did not play to […] Read more »
Election Night Shakeup: Here Come The New ‘Exit’ Polls
… The future of polling — and how to look out the front window instead of the back — was a major theme at the American Association of Public Opinion Research conference this past week in Denver. And one particular presentation stood out for its attempt to break the mold […] Read more »
Associated Press And Fox News Launch Project To Replace Exit Polls
Fox News and AP say they’ll conduct an election voter survey designed to replace the traditional in-person exit poll. This follows the 2016 election in which pollsters were criticized for inaccuracy. Weekend Edition Sunday, NPR Read more »
AP announces debut of new Election Day survey
The Associated Press announced today it will debut a new election survey in November aimed at capturing the opinions and preferences of voters as they choose who to vote for, along with the reasons behind their decision. AP VoteCast is based on a decade of research and experimentation that moves […] Read more »
Data and Messaging around Race and Education
There are two separate issues covered in Thomas Edsall’s Thursday, March 30, 2018 article in the New York Times. First, exit polls have problems with race and education. Certainty true, but not exactly as the author describes. Second, Democrats have problems messaging race and education. Certainty true, but not exactly […] Read more »