… Trump’s campaign flourished in 2016 even after saying then-Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a former prisoner of war, was “not a war hero.” He won a larger share of the primary vote from active and former military members than he did from other Republican voters, according to an academically […] Read more »
Four Years Later, It’s Still All About the Base
… Trump is trailing, not because he’s losing his 2016 base, but because he has never expanded beyond it. This week I dug into the most recent national poll from Pew research (7/27-8/2) and compared it with the results of their 2016 validated vote survey (basically, a post-election exit poll […] Read more »
Watch the key 2016 numbers as you watch the 2020 polls
With the convention season ending and the sprint to November about to begin, it might be useful to look once again at the 2016 presidential exit poll. The survey offers a window into that year’s electorate and will allow us to compare where we are now and where we are […] Read more »
No, the polls aren’t undersampling Republicans
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a clear advantage in the national polls. Perhaps not wanting to acknowledge Biden’s edge, some Republicans, including in President Donald Trump’s own circle, claim that the polls are oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans. Often, they point to the 2016 exit polls. An in-depth […] Read more »
The coronavirus pandemic is changing political polling as we know it
Primary Tuesday in New York, Kentucky, and Virginia was a quiet one. There were no crowded victory parties or subdued concession speeches. There weren’t even many winners or losers. Instead of exit polls and vote tallying, reporters told viewers that they would likely have to wait another week for results […] Read more »
A new poll shows Trump losing ground with key 2016 voters
The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds President Donald Trump in a familiar position as summer arrives, trailing by 7 points in a head-to-head matchup against presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. But inside the poll are more concerning numbers for the president that suggest challenges with key voter groups. […] Read more »