The latest polling in Iowa shows a tight, four-way race just three weeks away from caucus day. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew updates their thinking about who is likely to win there, and about how a win in Iowa could affect the rest of the […] Read more »
Another new poll makes clear what will happen in Iowa: No one knows
… Over the past several days, two major polls of Iowa have been released. At a glance, they seem to offer starkly different pictures of what’s likely to happen in next month’s caucuses. A poll from CNN, the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, conducted by Selzer & Co., has Sen. […] Read more »
Biden Leads Democratic Race But Loses Electability Edge Vs. President Trump: IBD/TIPP
Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a steady, though hardly comfortable lead in the Democratic nomination battle, the January IBD/TIPP Poll finds. Yet Biden’s biggest selling point since he entered the race — his electability vs. President Donald Trump — is at its lowest ebb of the 2020 election. Meanwhile, […] Read more »
Tuesday’s Democratic debate is a battle for heads, not hearts
The dynamics of the Democratic presidential race are about to change. Tuesday’s debate in Des Moines will be the grand opening of a new set of conflicts and the launch of renewed efforts by candidates not named Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders to make 2020 something other than a lightly […] Read more »
Elizabeth Warren’s Biggest Idea
… Clinton and, even more so, Obama, were successful presidents. Yet their administrations were still hindered by a certain naïveté. Officials sometimes tried to perfect policy design while proudly ignoring political impact, as if the two could be separated in a democracy. Republicans don’t suffer from this naïveté. Again and […] Read more »
If Joe Biden wins Iowa, ‘he’s off to the races’
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver shares his big takeaways from the FiveThirtyEight Democratic primary forecast. This Week, ABC News Read more »