Now that we finally have some clarity on Iowa’s results — with 86 percent of precincts reporting — we’ve turned our primary model back on, including its estimates of the potential fallout from Iowa. The model shows former Vice President Joe Biden’s chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates […] Read more »
The Iowa muddle isn’t over, even now that the first results are in
The muddle was still the message even after the Iowa Democratic Party finally released partial results from Monday night’s caucuses following an agonizing and unprecedented delay. … Even if the final numbers, or the order of finish among the candidates, shift somewhat when the last votes are released, one large […] Read more »
A boost for Buttigieg and concerns for Biden and Warren
One state down, and many states to go. In one respect, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg “won” the Iowa caucuses Monday evening regardless whether he finishes first in delegates or in the popular vote. … Veteran pollster Gary Langer described Buttigieg’s performance in the Iowa caucuses entrance poll as […] Read more »
In Iowa entrance poll, Buttigieg shows broad-based appeal; Biden, not so much
Broad-based appeal lifted former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg in the Iowa Democratic caucuses while younger participants, strong liberals and issue-focused voters pulled for Sen. Bernie Sanders. Former Vice President Joe Biden ran well among seniors in the ABC News entrance poll, but struggled mightily in some key groups, […] Read more »
Supporting a non-preferred candidate
Much has been written about candidates’ “electability,” and pundits often wonder how these concerns affect the Democratic presidential primary this year. Are primary voters planning on voting for the person they want to be president, the person they think is most likely to beat Donald Trump, or are these things […] Read more »
UMass Lowell/YouGov Poll: N.H. Democratic Primary Is Too Close to Call
With only eight days to go, the New Hampshire Democratic primary is wide open, with a close race for the lead and a large share of likely voters who say they could still change their mind, according to a new poll released today. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders is at the […] Read more »