Household confidence climbed last week to the highest level in seven months as Americans became less pessimistic about the economy. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to minus 33.1 in the period ended Nov. 11 from minus 34.4 the previous week. The gauge has stayed above minus 40, the level […] Read more »
More Evidence Regarding Importance of Economic Fundamentals in 2012 US Presidential Election
On August 1, 2012, we prepared a forecast of the 2012 presidential vote for PS. Our model contains two variables: (1) the cumulated weighted growth in leading economic indicators (LEI) through the 13th quarter of the current presidential term and (2) the incumbent party candidate’s share in the most recent […] Read more »
Americans Urge Congress, the President to Avoid Fiscal Cliff
More than eight in 10 Americans say it is extremely or very important for Congress and President Obama to agree on a plan so that the automatic budget cuts and tax increases of the “fiscal cliff” do not occur on Jan. 1. [cont.] Frank Newport, Gallup Read more »
Americans Want Congress to Act on Jobs
Last week’s elections have left Americans more optimistic about the prospects of President Obama and Congress reaching agreement on the most important issues facing the federal government, according to a United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll conducted ahead of the crucial lame-duck session beginning this week. … Americans have given […] Read more »
Obama’s win shouldn’t be surprising
It’s both the most often repeated and ridiculously misleading statistic of campaign 2012: that no president since FDR has ever been reelected with unemployment over 7.2 percent. True, but no one bothers to explain that until Ronald Reagan won by an 18-point margin, capturing 49 states, despite being “weighed down” […] Read more »
Broad Concern about ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Consequences
As the president and congressional leaders begin negotiations to avoid the “fiscal cliff” deadline at the end of the year, there is widespread public concern about the possible financial consequences. [cont.] Pew Read more »