… So what explains the apparent repudiation of the president’s party despite an improving economy under his watch? In a column written shortly before the election, political scientist Lynn Vavreck argued that midterms are not about the economy – they are referendums on the president. But this tells only part […] Read more »
Tuesday and What It Tells Us About 2016
The 2014 election was a major defeat of Democrats – a wave election that will have long-term consequences. It was produced by the Republicans who were energized by nationalizing the election around Barack Obama and it was also produced by the President’s failure to engage with an economic narrative and […] Read more »
Consumer Comfort in U.S. Advances to Second-Highest Since 2008
Consumer sentiment in the U.S. advanced last week to the second-highest level since 2008 as Americans grew more confident about their financial well-being. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (COMFCOMF) Index climbed to 38.1 in the period ended Nov. 2, just short of the five-year high of 38.3 reached in August 2013. […] Read more »
Why The Elephants Are Dancing: Understanding the November 2014 Election
Public Opinion Strategies’ Election Night Poll shows the 2014 election was defined by major dissatisfaction about the direction of the country, the economy, and President Obama: On Election Day, roughly two-thirds (65%) of voters said the country is headed off on the wrong track. The weekend before the election 64% […] Read more »
Shellacking 2: The Shellackening — Some Perspective
Just how big was the Republican sweep last night? As Hans suggests, we shouldn’t really examine any one election on its own. So let’s approach this with a bit of perspective. Here are some very tentative election results compared with their averages in midterm elections between 1950 and 2010: CONT. […] Read more »
What really went wrong for Democrats
The most common explanation we’re hearing for the GOP sweep of a dozen Senate races last night is that an already-treacherous map for Democrats was made a lot worse by the failure of core Dem voter groups to show up. But multiple Democratic pollsters involved in these races identify another […] Read more »