The Path to 270 in 2016: Can the Obama Coalition Survive?

One year out, the presidential election of 2016 appears wide open. Over the past four election cycles, American voters have yet to render a decisive verdict on partisan control of the federal government. … If Democrats are to retain the presidency in 2016, they will need to successfully transfer the […] Read more »

Five Tables That Explain Rise of Trump and Durability of Anti-Establishment Message

To understand why a majority of GOP voters are currently supporting candidates who espouse a populist-heavy, anti-establishment message, you need to look no further than the data laid out below. This is a GOP electorate that is decidedly pessimistic, suspicious of social/cultural change and resistant to compromise. CONT. Amy Walter, […] Read more »

10 Factors That Will Determine the Next President

… What follows is an exploration of 10 factors that will probably determine the White House winner next year. Some of these — many of them, in fact — suggest that the GOP should be seen as a narrow favorite. But a few factors, combined with the live possibility that […] Read more »

Can This Really Be Donald Trump’s Republican Party?

… Rather than a European right-wing party, the current contest for the Republican nomination has produced a unique American phenomenon: Donald J. Trump. … The dynamic interaction of three current trends — voter anger over immigration, over offshoring and robotization, and over damage wrought by the economic meltdown of 2008 […] Read more »

Four Poll Findings That Should Concern Democrats Heading Into 2016

There is little holiday cheer in this country, nor a sense of peace on Earth or goodwill toward man, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. Behind these findings are four sets of numbers that Democrats should study if they hope to hold on to the White House. […] Read more »