The special election on Tuesday in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, in the western part of the state, will put Republicans to the test in a part of the country that President Trump has made central to his message. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew discusses the candidates, expectations and political environment […] Read more »
New peril for moderate Dems: Voters happy with Trump’s economy
Half of all voters in the 10 states that voted for Trump but have Democratic senators say the economy is better off now than it was a year ago, according to new Axios/SurveyMonkey polls. And in nine of the states majorities approve of the GOP tax law. CONT. Alexi McCammond, […] Read more »
Previewing Base Voter Messaging for the 2018 Elections
Both major U.S. political parties recently held party conferences planning their strategies for the 2018 campaign. The stakes are high: control of the U.S. House of Representatives and, possibly, the U.S. Senate, as well as two-thirds of all state governorships. … Given the political parties’ limited time and resources, to […] Read more »
Support for Trump’s tariffs even lower than his job approval rating
If President Trump thinks that imposing steep tariffs on steel and aluminum will boost his public support, he is going to be disappointed. After dipping during the Great Recession, public support for international trade has rebounded as unemployment has declined. CONT. William A. Galston, Brookings Institution Read more »
Trump’s election has polarized Americans’ views of the future
It is well known that Democrats and Republicans have different views of the world. From current affairs to specific facts, Americans’ opinions are sharply delineated by their political party. But, since President Trump’s election, Americans also have become more polarized about something different: their views of the future. CONT. Eric […] Read more »
Jobs, wages, higher after-tax pay keeps consumer confidence high
Consumer sentiment has remained at very favorable levels for more than a year. In the February survey, it was just below the October 2017 peak of 100.7, the highest level since 2004, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. CONT. U. of Michigan Read more »