At some point earlier this year, an important transition happened. Some time after Jan. 10 and before Feb. 7, two dates on which Quinnipiac University released national polling, the number of Americans saying that the state of the economy was due to Barack Obama dropped below the number saying it […] Read more »
A Midterm Environment Is Beginning to Take Shape, but Beware the Late Decider
It’s June, five months out from the fall elections, and the midterm speculation has gone from a simmer to a slow boil. Over the past year, thanks to an expanding body of survey research, the political conventional wisdom has evolved from wishful thinking (the blue wave is inevitable) to educated […] Read more »
Left Economy, Right Economy
… Since the 2016 election, the partisan economic expectations gap—that is, the difference between Republicans’ and Democrats’ assessment of the economy’s direction—has widened to an unprecedented level, going from roughly 20 points during the presidencies of Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama to 56 points today. Democrats now […] Read more »
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Increased in May
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in May, following a modest decline in April (after a downward revision). The Index now stands at 128.0 (1985=100), up from 125.6 in April. CONT. Conference Board Read more »
Whither the economy
Last week, I argued here that voters’ evaluations of economic “realities” are heavily conditioned by their partisan identities. When asked about the economy, many use their response as an opportunity for partisan cheerleading rather than for “objective” reporting. However, the polls seem to be telling us quite different things about the […] Read more »
Economic realities and partisan feelings
I’ve noted many times that partisanship is a powerful drug. But you would think people would be able to shake off their partisan stupor long enough to report accurately on an objective reality in which they live each day — the economy. Many can’t. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The […] Read more »