An emerging literature examines how agents update their beliefs about climate change. Most studies have relied on indirect belief measures or opinion polls. We analyze a direct measure: prices of financial products whose payouts are tied to future weather outcomes. … When money is at stake, agents are accurately anticipating […] Read more »
Ahead of 2020, warning signs grow for historic economy
Through the first two years of his presidency, Donald Trump has had one very reliable ally: an excellent economy. Now, as the presidential campaign approaches, there are growing questions about what the economic landscape may look like in November 2020. By some measures, the nation’s economic outlook is positively sunny, […] Read more »
Confidence in the Economy Has Faded. Will It Rebound?
The government shutdown and the late 2018 stock market tumult eroded confidence in the economy among business owners and consumers alike last month. Now that the stock market has rallied and the government has reopened, will optimism about the economy rebound, or is the recent slide an indication of a […] Read more »
Trump Approval, Economic Confidence Rebound
President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has risen to 44% after the conclusion of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. While views of Trump have improved, the public’s heightened positivity does not extend to views of Congress, as its 21% approval rating is essentially unchanged from January. CONT. Megan […] Read more »
Americans’ Confidence in Their Finances Keeps Growing
Americans’ optimism about their personal finances has climbed to levels not seen in more than 16 years, with 69% now saying they expect to be financially better off “at this time next year.” CONT. Jim Norman, Gallup Read more »
Most See U.S. Economy as Slowing or Declining
Americans offer no clear verdict on the state of the U.S. economy, though a majority see the economy as slowing down or worse. Thirty-nine percent of U.S. adults say the economy is slowing down, while 17% believe it is currently in a recession or depression. Forty-one percent say it is […] Read more »