The 2020 election is ending in a frenzy of swing-state travel and warnings of a chaotic vote count befitting this head-spinning year in American politics. But lower the din for a moment, and you’re left with a presidential contest that’s been remarkably stable. The same is true of POLITICO’s Election […] Read more »
What Trump Needs to Win: A Polling Error Much Bigger Than 2016’s
If the polls are right, Joe Biden could post the most decisive victory in a presidential election in three and a half decades, surpassing Bill Clinton’s win in 1996. That’s a big “if.” … Of course, it’s possible the polls could be off by even more than they were four […] Read more »
My predictions for the 2020 presidential and congressional races
… Democrats need not fear. This, my sixth published biennial election prediction essay, is perhaps my easiest: Former vice president Joe Biden will win comfortably unless we experience the greatest polling failure in modern history. Democrats will also gain control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House. […] Read more »
On Election Night, these are the first states to watch
Election Day may well turn into Election Week this year with late returns deciding the presidency, but there still will be a large group of Americans tuning in on Tuesday trying to read the tea leaves of the early results. For those politically-obsessed souls, the Data Download is happy to […] Read more »
Why this race likely comes down to Arizona and Pennsylvania
President Donald Trump is trying to stop former Vice President Joe Biden’s pathway to 270 electoral votes. The polls released over the weekend suggest that this will be a difficult, but not an impossible task. Trump’s best path to stop Biden is for there to be a larger than average […] Read more »
To Trump, ‘the Polls That Matter’ Point to Victory. The Rest Are ‘Fake.’
When President Trump talks about polling, his focus is very much on survey-takers that he thinks are good for him. Polls that show him trailing Joseph R. Biden Jr. — virtually all national polls — are simply “fake news.” The president’s blinkered view has created something of an alternate universe, […] Read more »