The electorate is increasingly divided by race, education, gender and generation, and these fissures could grow even wider in the 2016 election. CONT. Nate Cohn & Amanda Cox, New York Times Read more »
Trump Isn’t Winning Enough White Voters
… One big reason Trump is trailing — by an average of 4 to 6 percentage points, depending on which aggregator you use — is because, despite all the bluster, he isn’t doing any better than Romney did among white voters. … To win, Trump would need to improve on […] Read more »
There Are More White Voters Than People Think. That’s Good News for Trump.
… New analysis by The Upshot shows that millions more white, older working-class voters went to the polls in 2012 than was found by exit polls on Election Day. This raises the prospect that Mr. Trump has a larger pool of potential voters than generally believed. The wider path may […] Read more »
Growing Urban-Rural Split Provides Republicans With Down-Ballot Advantages
The 2012 election provided two powerful reminders about the electoral implications of overly-concentrated Democratic voters. First, the Republicans held their U.S. House majority, won in 2010, despite the fact that the Democratic candidates in the 435 House districts received more votes than their Republican opponents. Second, these House results were […] Read more »
Why the Next President Will Inherit a Divided Country
One of the driving forces of modern American politics has been the kaleidoscopic reshaping of the electorate, as minorities have steadily increased their share of the vote while whites—particularly those without advanced education—have declined. But these trends have affected the two parties in strikingly different ways, likely to further diverge […] Read more »
Does Democratic Weakness Create Republican Opportunity?
Earlier this month, Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House and a presidential candidate in 2012, released a set of recommendations for Republicans running for election this year. … The document — in essence a master plan that comes with the strong endorsement of Reince Priebus, the chairman of […] Read more »