The paper’s called Voting patterns in 2016: Exploration using multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) on pre-election polls, it’s by Rob Trangucci, Imad Ali, Doug Rivers, and myself, and here’s the abstract: CONT. Andrew Gelman (Columbia U.), Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science Read more »
Conor Lamb Chips Away at Trump’s Coalition
The Republicans’ last sea wall against a Democratic wave in November visibly cracked, but did not entirely crumble, in Tuesday’s special election for a House seat in Pennsylvania. For all of the gains Democrats have posted in elections held since Donald Trump’s victory in 2016, until this week they had […] Read more »
The battleground race in Pennsylvania that shouldn’t be
On Tuesday, Pennsylvania will hold a special election for PA-18, a House district that won’t even exist next year. Normally that’s not the kind of election that draws attention, yet on Saturday, President Trump visited to rally Republicans. And when all is said and done, about $12 million will be […] Read more »
The Missing Obama Millions
Much of the political commentary since the presidential election has focused on two groups of party switchers: those who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2016 and those who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump voters who previously voted for […] Read more »
Can Texas Democrats turn the Lone Star State blue?
For years, Democrats have dreamt of turning the state of Texas blue, or at least a competitive shade of purple. Tuesday’s Democratic and Republican primary votes may offer some hint as to whether that dream is any closer to becoming a reality. The idea of turning the Lone Star State […] Read more »
Millennials projected to overtake Baby Boomers as America’s largest generation
Millennials are on the cusp of surpassing Baby Boomers as the nation’s largest living adult generation, according to population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau. As of July 1, 2016 (the latest date for which population estimates are available), Millennials, whom we define as ages 20 to 35 in 2016, […] Read more »