The question of whether America will become a majority-minority nation — and when that might happen — is intensely disputed, of enormous political import and extraordinarily complex. Two articles that appeared in the opinion section of The Times over the past few years made the case that misleading statistical artifacts […] Read more »
The Ohio Results Point to Democratic Strength in 2018—and a Showdown in 2020
The results in Ohio’s special House election Tuesday night reinforced the electoral trends that have driven American politics since Donald Trump’s election—and underscored the precarious political trade the president is imposing on his party. Republican Troy Balderson’s slim advantage over Democrat Danny O’Connor in a district Republicans have held without […] Read more »
Obama and Trump both bent demographic trends to win. Can Trump repeat in 2020?
The past three presidential elections have been head-snapping for many Americans: a sharp turn into what many people believed was the future of electoral politics with the elections of Barack Obama and an even sharper reversal with the victory of Donald Trump. People are still making sense of it all. […] Read more »
White threat in a browning America
In 2008, Barack Obama held up change as a beacon, attaching to it another word, a word that channeled everything his young and diverse coalition saw in his rise and their newfound political power: hope. An America that would elect a black man president was an America in which a […] Read more »
A Census Question That Could Change How Power Is Divided in America
A citizenship question on the 2020 census has already drawn challenges from states that fear an undercount of immigrants and a loss of federal funds. But demographers say there could be even deeper consequences: The question could generate the data necessary to redefine how political power is apportioned in America. […] Read more »
Democrats’ hopes of winning in the South hinge on the suburbs
One key measure of any Democratic wave in the midterm elections will be whether it crests high enough to overcome the formidable Republican defenses in the growing suburbs across the South. The answer will have implications that extend far beyond 2018. While Democrats have notched significant gains since the 1990s […] Read more »