The shift of metro areas away from the Republican Party under President Donald Trump rumbled on in yesterday’s elections, threatening the fundamental calculation of his 2020 reelection plan. Amid all the various local factors that shaped GOP losses—from Kentucky to Virginia, from suburban Philadelphia to Wichita, Kansas—the clearest pattern was […] Read more »
On immigration issues, a wall between Texas partisans, UT/TT poll finds
Thirty-nine percent of Texas registered voters believe too many people are allowed to immigrate to the U.S. from other countries, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. Another 29% say about the right amount of immigration is allowed, and 16% say too few immigrants are admitted into the […] Read more »
The changing Democratic electorate could upend Iowa’s role in 2020
… In every contested Democratic nomination race in this century, the winner of the Iowa caucuses has eventually won the nomination. That’s a measure of how much momentum candidates can earn, especially in this era of pervasive news coverage, from winning that kickoff contest. Conscious of that history, the leading […] Read more »
Trump’s madness is not enough to doom him in 2020
… Yes, the public seems ready to throw Trump out of office. But will Democrats make that easy or hard? A report released last week by the Center for American Progress sheds important light on the party’s choices. One of its key findings will cheer Trump’s foes: If every demographic […] Read more »
The Path to 270 in 2020
The election of President Donald Trump in 2016 defied many normal rules of presidential political strategy and electoral analysis. … The big question heading into 2020 is whether President Trump and Republicans can repeat this success. Is there a strong and growing Trump coalition that can replicate his successes with […] Read more »
Trump Has No Room for Error in 2020
The risk in Donald Trump’s base-first electoral strategy is only rising—because the size of his base is shrinking. Working-class whites are on track to continue declining as a share of eligible voters in 2020, according to a study released today by the liberal think tank Center for American Progress. In […] Read more »