… Compared with the 2016 GOP convention, which rippled with unresolved tension and resistance to Trump’s rise, the conspicuous absence of dissent at this year’s event underscores how the President has stamped the party with his trademark as surely as if it were one of his downtown skyscrapers. … In […] Read more »
The flaw in Trump’s suburban strategy
Give President Trump this much: He has finally realized that the 2020 election will be lost and won in the suburbs. The question is whether his realization comes too late. In recent weeks, Trump claimed that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden wants to “abolish the suburbs,” tweeted that he would […] Read more »
The Democratic Convention Is a Reality Check for Trump
… Despite a pandemic that has killed more than 170,000 Americans and cratered the economy, the latest surveys show Trump maintaining strong support among the white voters most uneasy about the demographic and cultural changes remaking America, particularly those who are evangelical Christians, live in rural areas, or lack a […] Read more »
A Resource for State Preelection Polling
Post-mortem analysis of the 2016 election found that a failure to adjust for overrepresentation of college graduates was among the reasons many state-level polls underestimated support for Donald Trump. Voters who graduated from a four-year college are more likely to answer surveys than other adults and, in recent years, they […] Read more »
Why Democrats Need to Play to Win in Texas
The Democratic Party — from Joe Biden all the way down to the grassroots — need make a huge investment in Texas, but not for the reasons you think. … The question isn’t if Texas becomes blue. The question is when. And if we don’t fight like hell in 2020, […] Read more »
Kamala Harris’s Nomination Is a Turning Point for Democrats
… By selecting Harris, Biden has positioned the Democratic Party for a profound generational and demographic transition, and he’s addressed the fundamental incongruity of his candidacy: the inherent strain of a nearly 78-year-old white man leading a political coalition that relies on big margins among young voters, people of color, […] Read more »