… Absent a dramatic late development, small shifts in the preferences or turnout of virtually any group in the electorate could decide this election. To understand the boundaries and dynamics of this struggle, National Journal has updated a project we conducted in 2008 that examined, in unprecedented depth, the fault […] Read more »
The New Math
… In 2008, Obama won a combined 80 percent of the votes of all minority voters, including not only African-Americans but also Hispanics, Asians, and others. If Obama matches that performance this year, he can squeak out a national majority with support from about 40 percent of whites—so long as […] Read more »
Obama Remains Women’s Presidential Pick; Romney, Men’s
Male voters currently prefer Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by an eight-percentage-point margin, while female voters prefer Obama over Romney by an identical eight points. [cont.] Frank Newport, Gallup Read more »
The Lost Decade of the Middle Class
As the 2012 presidential candidates prepare their closing arguments to America’s middle class, they are courting a group that has endured a lost decade for economic well-being. Since 2000, the middle class has shrunk in size, fallen backward in income and wealth, and shed some—but by no means all—of its […] Read more »
Widening Racial Chasm a Problem for Both Parties
Mitt Romney could run as well among whites as any Republican presidential challenger in the history of polling—and still lose. That equation carries threats for both parties. For Republicans, that prospect crystallizes the danger of an electoral strategy that has left the party almost entirely dependent on white voters, even […] Read more »
Census Race and Hispanic Origin Alternative Questionnaire Research
The U.S. Census Bureau released research today from its 2010 Census Race and Hispanic Origin Alternative Questionnaire Experiment, which provides a comparison of different census questionnaire design strategies for collecting census data on race and Hispanic origin. [cont.] U.S. Census Bureau Read more »