As a pollster who is planning surveys for 2014 candidates, I am compelled to try and develop some sense of the likely electorate — a model of probable turnout. Who will vote in the midterm elections? It’s tough to say these days. … Seasoned citizens, our oldest voters, are in […] Read more »
More in U.S. Warm to the New Melting Pot
Most Americans do not view immigrants as a threat either to America’s economy or its culture, but key elements of the Republican coalition continue to express unease at the pace of demographic change, the new College Board/National Journal Next America Poll has found. The poll found little concern about economic […] Read more »
What if Race No Longer Matters in City Politics?
The most significant development in the mayoral election in Boston earlier this month was hardly discussed: the absence of open racial animosity. … The absence of race as a divisive issue was also striking in New York’s recent mayoral election — and before that in the March 5 mayoral election […] Read more »
Can the Obama coalition be recreated in 2016? Maybe.
Here’s what the 2008 and 2012 elections taught us: President Obama built a national political coalition — the three main pillars of which were African Americans, Hispanics and young voters — that Republicans couldn’t come close to touching. Here’s what the 2010 election taught us: That Obama coalition is not […] Read more »
Poll shows Republicans losing ethnicity, age battle in California
Deep inside a new USC/Los Angeles Times poll are details that could make the California Republican Party, and by extension its cohorts elsewhere in the country, fear anew the march of time and demographics. California right now is an extreme example of the nation, to be sure: more ethnically mixed […] Read more »
Virginia’s Election Encapsulates the Problems Both Parties Face
Apart from Republican Gov. Chris Christie’s big victory in New Jersey, there was more to fear than to cheer for both parties in this week’s election results. The outcomes, especially in Virginia, solidified the sense that each party is now operating with more weaknesses than strengths. For Democrats, the most […] Read more »