… It seems an overstatement to say that Southern Republicans are in outright denial about the fact that whites will be a minority in America around 2043. It does seem fair to say that the national Republican Party is underreacting, and Southern Republicans seem to be especially resistant to appealing […] Read more »
‘Brown and Gray’ Dynamics
The demographic revolution transforming the U.S. belongs to the young. That’s the unmistakable message from the latest population estimates that the Census Bureau released late last month. The Census found that along every rung of the generational ladder, the younger the age group, the larger the share of the population […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders Could Win Iowa And New Hampshire. Then Lose Everywhere Else.
… I estimate that 54 percent of the voters in the New Hampshire Democratic primary were white liberals in 2008. That’s the second-highest figure in the country, after Vermont (59 percent). In the Iowa caucus, meanwhile, white liberals made up 50 percent; that put the state in a tie with […] Read more »
Ben Wattenberg and the Changing ‘Real Majority’
When I attended a funeral service last week for Ben Wattenberg, it really hit me how much our country and politics have changed in the 45 years since he and Richard Scammon wrote The Real Majority, a landmark, best-selling book analyzing the American electorate and voter behavior. … What was […] Read more »
The Kaleidoscope Society
The Supreme Court decision legalizing same-sex marriage, President Obama’s wrenching eulogy in Charleston, and a Census Bureau report that kids of color for the first time now make up a majority of America’s under-5 population all arrived within one indelible 24-hour period late last week. Each event sent the same […] Read more »
A Momentous Week, and a GOP That Needs to Change
The momentous events of the last week can be interpreted in numerous ways. But one thing has become increasingly clear: The Republican Party needs to change. … Simply put, Republicans are loaded up in a car, racing toward a generational cliff with their eyes focused on the rearview mirror, with […] Read more »