Why Donald Trump Won’t Fold: Polls and People Speak

… A review of public polling, extensive interviews with a host of his supporters in two states and a new private survey that tracks voting records all point to the conclusion that Mr. Trump has built a broad, demographically and ideologically diverse coalition, constructed around personality, not substance, that bridges […] Read more »

Marco Rubio Makes a Move Out of the Past

… With opinion divided over President Obama’s impact on both the nation’s economy and its security, the Democrats’ most potent weapon in the 2016 election remains the sense that they are more connected than the GOP to the nation’s evolving cultural and demographic dynamics. As last week’s GOP first- and […] Read more »

Many Republican Polls Are Measuring a Unicorn Electorate

… The first problem with trying to measure the attitudes of a target population of the national Republican primary electorate is that such an electorate does not actually exist in the quite the same way that other electorates do. The presidential nominating process is a dynamic one, with primaries and […] Read more »

Urban Resurgence Is A Double-Edged Sword For Democrats

For the first time in the post-World War II era, cities are growing at about the same rate as their suburbs, which for decades grew at a much faster clip. That’s good news for Democrats (especially Hillary Clinton) nationally: Their party’s recent Electoral College victories have been fueled by huge […] Read more »