… California, perhaps more than anywhere else, shows how the Sanders campaign has evolved from a movement of true believers into a strategic machine built to win a presidential nomination. As Mr. Sanders and his advisers look beyond the four early-voting states and toward Super Tuesday on March 3, they […] Read more »
The biggest state feels the most excluded in the Democratic race
… California will award 415 pledged delegates to the Democratic convention next summer, far more than any state. … And yet no one in California feels confident that the state will exert even a fraction of the influence over the outcome of the race than the two smaller, predominately white […] Read more »
Klobuchar Is Banking on Iowa Moderates. Her Problem: So Is Buttigieg.
… Of all the Democratic presidential candidates still in the race, it has been Ms. Klobuchar, the Minnesota senator, and Mr. Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Ind., who have worked hardest and deepest to win over Iowa’s more moderate Democrats, pitching themselves as Midwestern pragmatists who know how to […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Holiday Mailbag Edition
In this special holiday installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew spends a whole episode answering listener questions. The topics range from the best way to winnow a primary debate stage, to who would win if the podcast team went toe-to-toe in a battle royale. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
White evangelicals fear atheists and Democrats would strip away their rights. Why?
As the House has moved through the impeachment of President Trump, voices on the extreme right have been arguing that it’s the first shot in a coming “civil war.” According to conservative evangelical conspiracy theorist Rick Wiles, “The Democrats are forcing me to stockpile ammunition, food, water, and medical supplies […] Read more »
Is it true that “Most polls misrepresent the Democratic electorate” and that this “skews the results”?
Someone pointed me to this post in the Monkey Cage, a political science blog that I participate in. The post was about non-representativeness of political polls, and it had one good point and one bad point. Overall I think the claims in the post were overstated. CONT. Andrew Gelman (Columbia […] Read more »