… To Democrats, the level of support for Trump within his party seems occasionally baffling. How could someone they hate so much be viewed so positively by the other party? Over the course of Trump’s presidency, a theory emerged: He’s so popular among Republicans because Trump-skeptical Republicans have simply given […] Read more »
Is killing Soleimani a game changer for Democrats?
… Hard as it may be to believe in the white heat of the moment, when D.C. is consumed with the story, history suggests the greatest likelihood is that it won’t have any discernable impact. Political scientists Lynn Vavreck and John Sides identified 68 events labeled “game changers” in 2012, […] Read more »
Trump Wants Law and Order Front and Center
Unexpectedly, the 2020 presidential campaign is drilling down on petty crime and homelessness. Donald Trump and his Republican allies are reviving law-and-order themes similar to those used effectively by Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew in the late 1960s and early 1970s to demonize racial minorities. To this end, Republicans seek […] Read more »
Reflexive anti-Trumpism, AOC’s shrink-the-tent strategy will cost Democrats in November
For those of you who read this column regularly, you’ve heard me often urge Republicans to put their focus on building a broader majority coalition through a more positive political strategy. It’s the best path to electoral victory instead of relying heavily on negative campaigns. But watching the Democrats over […] Read more »
If Democrats nominate a woman for president, don’t try to make predictions about how she’ll do
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton arrives onstage during a primary night rally at the Duggal Greenhouse in the Brooklyn Navy Yard, June 7, 2016. Getty/ Drew Angerer Nathaniel Swigger, The Ohio State University Four women remain out of an original six in the Democratic primary for president: Sens. Elizabeth Warren […] Read more »
The two words that could tip the debate on Iran — and help decide the next election
The fierce political debate over President Donald Trump’s decision to order the killing of a top Iranian military leader ultimately may turn on just two words. Republicans cheering Trump’s decision to target Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani have invariably described it as decisive. Democrats criticizing his choice have denounced it […] Read more »