In our first episode of 2020, we preview the seventh Democratic primary debate. Plus, we discuss the role endorsements and fundraising play in predicting the ultimate primary winner, and how the developing situation in Iran might influence the 2020 race. The Forecast Fest Read more »
Biden Is The Front-Runner, But There’s No Clear Favorite
Joe Biden is the most likely person to win a majority of pledged Democratic delegates, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary model, which we launched on Thursday morning. … But saying the former vice president is the front-runner doesn’t really tell the whole story. He may be the most likely nominee, […] Read more »
Tom Steyer just got his two best polls of the cycle
Businessman Tom Steyer is proving that you can, in fact, buy some love in politics. New Fox News polls in the third and fourth states of the primary season, Nevada and South Carolina, have Steyer jumping into the double digits. In doing so, Steyer has qualified for next week’s CNN/Des […] Read more »
How Our Primary Model Works
Here at FiveThirtyEight, we’ve never built a complete back-to-front model of the presidential primaries before. Instead, in 2008, 2012 and 2016, we issued forecasts of individual primaries and caucuses on piecemeal basis, using polls and demographics. We always thought there were too many complexities involved — how the outcome in […] Read more »
How Serious Is Tom Steyer’s Polling Surge?
… In what might be the most surprising results of the cycle, Fox News released polls in South Carolina and Nevada showing Tom Steyer in a strong position: second place with 15 percent of the vote in the South Carolina primary, and tied for third with 12 percent of the […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Races tighten between Trump and Democrats in Wisconsin
The Democratic advantage over Donald Trump has narrowed in potential head-to-head matchups, according to a Fox News Poll of Wisconsin voters. In addition, a plurality opposes the Senate removing President Trump from office following impeachment by the House, even as a majority disapproves of the job he is doing as […] Read more »