The candidates in the top 1% have accounted for about 78% of the ad spending in the presidential race so far, according to new numbers. The two self-funding billionaires in the Democratic primary, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg and activist business executive Tom Steyer, have spent the most […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Oh, Iowa!
It’s feast or famine! A bunch of new Iowa polls have been released, but their results greatly differ. Why, and can we accurately get a sense of where the Iowa contest stands? We pick up those questions on Poll Hub. But, first, Tuesday was the last chance Iowa caucus-goers had […] Read more »
Knowns & Unknowns: Hunting Black Swans in the Age of Disruption
Political prognostication, by Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. CONT. — pdf Read more »
Checking in on Wisconsin
… A president sitting at 42 percent approval, with “strong disapproval” outweighing “strong approval” by 10-12 points is not going to win the national popular vote. But, that doesn’t mean he can’t win the Electoral College. And, in assessing the Electoral College reality, there’s no better place to check into […] Read more »
On Diversity, Were DNC Rules to Blame?
… During and after the 2016 Democratic presidential campaign, there were complaints that the DNC had not played square, that it had a finger on the scale for Hillary Clinton. It is certainly true that the DNC didn’t go out of its way to do Bernie Sanders or Martin O’Malley […] Read more »
Warren Goes on Offense
This week, we break down the winners and losers of the final Democratic primary debate before the Iowa caucuses. Plus, we deep-dive into two new polls out of the Hawkeye State. Then, we discuss what Cory Booker’s exit might reveal about Democratic voters’ priorities. The Forecast Fest Read more »