This week, as the Iowa caucuses loom, we break down a flurry of new polls. Plus, we discuss why it’s difficult to predict who will win in Iowa, and which candidates have an advantage going into the caucuses. The Forecast Fest Read more »
With Iowa and New Hampshire still up in the air, Democratic race has 2016 echoes
… Given the wildly conflicting polls (and the difficulty in polling caucus attendees), we still can’t be certain who’ll win Iowa, what the order of finish will be or what the margins between candidates will look like. So there is a lot up in the air. On the other hand, […] Read more »
Sanders leads in California’s Democratic presidential primary
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is now the outright leader in voter preferences in California’s upcoming March 3rd Democratic presidential primary. The latest Berkeley IGS Poll completed last week finds Sanders to be the choice of 26% of likely voters in the Democratic primary. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is second at […] Read more »
Why expectations matter in Iowa
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders could be surging at just the right time. He’s ahead in some of the highest quality polls coming out of Iowa with a week to go until the caucuses. History suggests that a win in Iowa could allow Sanders to take the lead in the national […] Read more »
The deep electoral roots of the Senate’s impeachment standoff
The virtually lockstep Republican defense of President Donald Trump so far during his impeachment trial marks a new milestone in the Senate’s long-term evolution into a more partisan and regimented institution that demands unwavering party loyalty and punishes the freewheeling independence that characterized the great legislators through the body’s history. […] Read more »
Meet the new top tier of Democratic contenders, same as the old top tier
The polling floodgates have finally opened! Over the past few days, Emerson, Marist, Suffolk, YouGov, the University of New Hampshire, Fox News, the New York Times and our very own Washington Post polls team have all released surveys of Democratic primary voters. This new data shows that, with less than […] Read more »