28 Scenarios For What Things Could Look Like After New Hampshire

After an extremely confusing week in the Democratic presidential primary, I have some bad news: New Hampshire might not resolve as much as you think. That’s for two reasons. First, our study of past primaries finds that the bounces that result from New Hampshire are only about half as large […] Read more »

Today may mark the end of the Iowa-New Hampshire monopoly

Tuesday’s primary in this Northeastern state may mark the final day of nearly 50 years of unparalleled influence for Iowa and New Hampshire as the one-two kickoff contests in the Democratic presidential nominating process. In this year’s presidential campaign, the distorting effects of providing such power to two virtually all-white […] Read more »

A snapshot of the top 2020 Democratic presidential candidates’ supporters

Democratic registered voters in the United States have a positive view of the field of candidates vying for their party’s presidential nomination, and they generally agree with each other on issues ranging from gun laws to climate change, according to a January Pew Research Center survey. But as the race […] Read more »

The Democratic primary has been a mess. At least New Hampshire is acting normal.

The 2020 primary has gone off the rails. Joe Biden, the semi-anointed front-runner, placed fourth in Iowa and is poised to post another disappointing finish in New Hampshire. Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., has outlasted more experienced, promising upstarts such as Kamala D. Harris, Beto O’Rourke […] Read more »