Sen. Bernie Sanders won a decisive victory in the Nevada caucuses over the weekend. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Jon Ralston, editor of The Nevada Independent, joins Nate Silver and Galen Druke to break down the voting patterns that helped Sanders win and what they mean going […] Read more »
Sanders Says He’ll Attract a Wave of New Voters. It Hasn’t Happened.
It is the most politically provocative part of Senator Bernie Sanders’s campaign pitch: that his progressive movement will bring millions of nonvoters into the November election, driving record turnout especially among disaffected working-class Americans and young people. And yet despite a virtual tie in Iowa, a narrow victory in New […] Read more »
The Democratic Nomination: It’s Getting Late Early
Last April, we noted that despite the ever-growing Democratic presidential field and delegate allocation rules that can string out a nomination fight, there was the possibility of a single candidate getting an early grip on the nomination because of the frontloaded calendar. By the end of St. Patrick’s Day, states […] Read more »
NBC News poll: Biden holds narrow lead over Sanders in South Carolina
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., are locked in a tight contest in South Carolina, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll ahead of the state’s Feb. 29 Democratic primary. CONT. Mark Murray, NBC News Read more »
Some candidates do better than the polls and others worse. We break it down.
Pre-election polls are more important this primary election cycle than ever before. Last week, Michael Bloomberg was given a place on the debate stage in Las Vegas because of his rising support in pre-election polls. Polls provide more than just interesting talking points — they can have direct consequences for […] Read more »
Biden lost his ‘electable’ claim. That’s why black votes are up for grabs again.
… The lesson to take from what we know about why black voting is steadfastly Democratic in general elections, and to apply to the primaries, is that candidates seeking to consolidate bloc-like support from black voters have a twofold job. First, without party identification as a shortcut for political decision-making, […] Read more »