This edition of our daily tracking release features findings from a national online survey of 1,010 registered voters conducted May 11-May 14, 2020. • As Trump’s ratings hit new lows, Democrats in Congress are more trusted than Trump on handling the coronavirus response.• Americans are concerned that Republicans in Congress […] Read more »
Where are people less likely to obey coronavirus restrictions? Republican counties.
President Trump is cheering on Republican governors who lift stay-at-home orders, criticizing Democratic governors who’ve been more cautious and supporting right-wing protests against stay-at-home orders. Coronavirus politics, in other words, like climate change politics, is riven by party. According to recent survey research, average Americans may be following their party […] Read more »
Trump Brings in the Infantry for His War on Blue America
Even during the shared national challenge of the coronavirus outbreak, President Donald Trump is escalating his attacks on the institutions of blue America. And a growing number of other Republicans are joining him. Trump has long provoked questions about whether he respects the legitimacy of small-d democratic institutions. But in […] Read more »
Is the California special election a bellwether of things to come? The GOP hopes so
It’s morning again in America for the GOP, or at least in California today. The hard-fought special election for the state’s 25th District ended Wednesday when Democrat Christy Smith conceded the race to Republican Mike Garcia. Republicans have managed to flip a blue seat in California for the first time […] Read more »
Why 2020’s Third Party Share Should Be Lower Than 2016
Key Points• Despite — or perhaps because of — the relatively high share of the vote third party candidates received in 2016, we expect the two major parties to have a better showing in 2020.• Voters generally feel better about their major party nominees this year than they did in […] Read more »
Geography and gerrymander
… In 1960, John F. Kennedy won the national popular vote by less than two-tenths of a percentage point, while winning some 1,155 of the nation’s 3,143 counties. In 2012, Barack Obama won the popular vote by 4 points but took just 705 counties. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton won […] Read more »