Why Red v. Blue Became Me v. You: Polarization, Part II

A political identity–being a liberal or Democrat (a “D”) versus being a conservative or Republican (an “R”)–has become viscerally more important to more Americans, reaching partisan intensities not seen for at least a century and not seen elsewhere in the western world. R’s and D’s have increasingly and heatedly differed […] Read more »

Republicans Retain Edge in Electoral College Tie

Key Points• If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College votes, the U.S. House of Representatives elected in the 2024 election would decide the presidency.• Republicans are very likely to continue to control enough House delegations to select the GOP nominee as the winner, meaning that 269 is effectively […] Read more »

2024 poll: DeSantis slides as Trump surges to first head-to-head lead in months

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that after trailing for the last three months, former President Donald Trump has suddenly surged to a substantial lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a two-man matchup for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. Previously, DeSantis led Trump 45% to 41% among Republican voters. […] Read more »

Democrats have been doing well in special elections in 2023

Democrat Jennifer McClellan easily won the special election for Virginia’s 4th Congressional District last week. The fact that a Democrat comfortably retained a Democratic seat in a district President Joe Biden would have won under its new lines by 36 points in 2020 is not surprising. What is notable is […] Read more »

Fox News Poll: GOP maintains advantage on top issues, but Democrats show some momentum

The economy is the most important issue facing the country, according to almost 4 in 10 voters, with immigration/border security coming in a distant second. That’s according to the latest Fox News survey released Sunday. Out of a list of nine issues, 36% say the economy is the country’s top […] Read more »

Fox News Poll: Trump, DeSantis top 2024 Republican preference

One year out from the 2024 primaries, here is the debut Fox News national survey on the presidential nomination races. Spoiler alert, former President Donald Trump looks formidable, while President Biden faces doubt. Republican primary voters were read a list of 15 announced and potential candidates for the 2024 nomination. […] Read more »