Explaining the Republican Victory in the Virginia Gubernatorial Election: Conversion or Mobilization?

Key Points• The non-presidential party often performs better in off-year elections than it did in the previous cycle’s presidential race. The recent Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races are no exception, both this year and historically.• This likely has more to do with an enthusiasm advantage generating better turnout for […] Read more »

Trump Won’t Let America Go. Can Democrats Pry It Away?

… Do Democrats’ difficulties grow more out of structural advantages of the Republican Party — better geographic distribution of its voters, the small-state tilt of the Electoral College and the Senate, more control over redistricting? Or do their difficulties stem from Democratic policies and positions that alienate key blocs of […] Read more »

Biden goes from a contrast to Trump to a contrast to competency

… This is my last column for 2021, and so maybe a little reflection is in order on what has been a difficult year for the country and a disastrous one for President Joe Biden and his party. … Now, as we close the door on this most miserable year, […] Read more »