Donald Trump has spent much of his campaign selling himself as a maker of great deals. But in the next phase of the campaign, the author of The Art of the Deal may be confronted with the ultimate dealmaking challenge, gaming the rulebook and horse-trading for delegates at what could […] Read more »
Clinton Is Following Obama’s Path To The Nomination
… I’m intrigued by the parallels to the 2008 campaign perhaps because it’s where FiveThirtyEight cut its teeth. I spent a lot of time in the spring of 2008 arguing that Obama’s lead in elected delegates would be hard for Clinton to overcome. But Clinton’s lead over Sanders is much […] Read more »
Results Show How Donald Trump Can Win Majority of Delegates
Donald Trump’s near sweep of states on Tuesday — with the notable exception of Ohio — set up a true three-way race for the second half of the primary season. The results Tuesday night showed why it’s a race he could win. Despite his loss in Ohio, Mr. Trump is […] Read more »
The Path to a Contested Convention: Delegate Simulator
A series of primaries on Tuesday could change the dynamic of the Republican presidential race. CONT. Randy Yeip & Stuart A. Thompson, Wall Street Journal Read more »
Bernie Sanders’s Win in Michigan Changes Race but Not Probabilities
… Bernie Sanders managed to defeat Hillary Clinton by two percentage points in Michigan on Tuesday night, even though he trailed by at least 11 percentage points in every survey, and even though the demographics pointed toward a significant, if relatively smaller, advantage for Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Sanders’s win is […] Read more »
If Super Tuesday Voting Pattern Continues, Donald Trump Will Reach Delegate Target
Donald Trump did not amass a majority of delegates on Super Tuesday. But he could soon. If the people in the rest of the nation vote as the Super Tuesday results suggest they would, Mr. Trump would easily amass a majority of delegates and avoid the contested convention that his […] Read more »