Until Wisconsin, Donald Trump was considered likely to win a majority of pledged delegates. In truth, his plan to reach 1,237 was already very vulnerable; Ted Cruz had built enough support by March 15 that even adding a modest share of Marco Rubio’s voters was likely to start him on […] Read more »
How the Republican Race Could End
Even before Ted Cruz thrashed Donald Trump in Wisconsin, there was incessant buzz in political circles about the possibility of a contested convention in Cleveland. Since Wisconsin, the buzz has ramped up substantially, consuming hundreds of hours of bloviation on cable news networks. I’ve been gratified to see that, after […] Read more »
Ted Cruz, Not Paul Ryan, Would Probably Win A Contested Convention
… It’s not that hard to imagine a contested convention. In fact, with Donald Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates looking tenuous, especially after his loss in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, it’s a real possibility. And it’s not hard to see how Republicans might think of Kasich or Ryan as good […] Read more »
In defense of superdelegates
I’m about to make some enemies. In recent weeks, passionate denunciations of “superdelegates” have rolled in from most quarters of the Democratic Party. They’ve been labeled unfair, unjust and even anti-democratic. To the contrary, I believe superdelegates represent an entirely appropriate, indeed necessary, institution. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The […] Read more »
GOP says no last-minute candidates like Paul Ryan
While Republican Party insiders angle for a last-minute alternative to Donald Trump, GOP voters are warning against convention deals that seem to go against the will of the rank and file. A majority of Republican voters want Trump to get their presidential nomination if he’s ahead but short of a […] Read more »
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
… If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot, he’s probably screwed. The basic reason is simple. Most of the 2,472 delegates with a vote in Cleveland probably aren’t going to like Trump. Let’s back up a bit. In most of our discussions about delegates here at FiveThirtyEight, we treat […] Read more »